As Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address Congress, we can expect him to succeed in convincing the U.S., again, that Iran is one to two years away from getting a nuclear weapon. At the risk of sounding cynical, as long as Iran is always one to two years away from getting a nuclear weapon, Netanyahu gets his $3 billion dollar check in U.S. aid, no questions asked. Netanyahu’s visit is conveniently timed to align with another round of U.S. and Iranian nuclear talks, which, according to analysts, are either likely to fail outright, or might as well fail.
Today the American Conservative posted an article describing the essence of the nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. It goes something like this: if negotiations with Iran fail, then we are left with two options. A) The world will have to get used to the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. B) Western forces (which would probably consist of only U.S. and Israel) will have to pursue a policy of regime change in Iran. Therein lies the self-fulfilling prophecy inherent in foreign policy realism. Iran’s only sure-fire bet against regime change, from outside and inside forces, is a nuclear arsenal. Iran, the U.S., and Israel all know that. Continue reading